Good morning and Happy Holiday.
I received a lot of response to my email yesterday about the new HARP loan limits as high as 125%. It is always gratifying to me to see that a lot of you read my emails. However, it was apparent that many of you are confused about the email, so I'd like to clarify.
As a reminder, the HARP program was initiated to make it possible for those of you who currently have mortgages owned by either Fannie or Freddie, to refinance your loans at the lower rates, in spite of the fact that you owe more than your house is currently worth. With HARP refinances, you are not permitted to get cash back. You are permitted to refi for the purpose of lowering your rate, and therefore lowering your monthly payments to help you through this economic crisis.
When HARP was rolled out in February, housing values had not fallen as much as they have now. The lending limit was set at a loan amount of up to 105% of the appraised value of your home. Since home values have continued to drop, the lending limit has been raised to 125% of the appraised value. This has been done to allow more of you to take advantage of this program. If you have not checked in the past, or if you checked in the past and got a NO response, please click on the links below to find out if your current mortgage is owned by either Fannie or Freddie now. Some mortgages were reporting incorrectly, and Fannie and Freddie have purchased more existing mortgages.
https://ww3.freddiemac.com/corporate/
http://loanlookup.fanniemae.com/loanlookup/
For those of you whose mortgages included mortgage insurance payments, technically you do qualify for a HARP refinance transaction. BUT, Fannie and Freddie are requiring that in order to get this refinance, you must still carry mortgage insurance on your loan. The problem is that there are no insurers willing to insure this loan, so the reality is that you still cannot refinance your loan. In my less than humble opinion, this is not fair. Many borrowers who DO qualify for HARP funding, have a 1st and 2nd mortgage, rather than mortgage insurance, and never had more equity than you.
We in the lending industry, are campaigning on your behalf, with Congress and with Fannie and Freddie, to have this mortgage insurance requirement deleted. In our opinion, you are being unfairly discriminated against because you perhaps bought your house later in the game, or you didn't have the 20% down payment when you purchased or refinanced, or you didn't get a 1st/2nd mortgage combo loan when you purchased. If you have good credit, a good payment history, and a steady source of income, why should some people have an opportunity you are being denied?
I urge you to take steps to try to help yourselves, because this affects a LOT of you. When we in the mortgage industry talk to our Congressional representatives, or lobby Fannie and Freddie, we are often perceived as looking after our own interests - more business. Of course we want more business, doesn't everybody? But, at the same time, we are the ones in the position of seeing, first hand, how many of you are being affected by this ruling. YOU have to speak out on your own behalf. Congress tends to "grease the squeakiest wheel," so if you make yourselves heard in huge numbers, perhaps someone will actually take notice. There is no reason why your loan, at 125% of appraised value, poses a higher risk to the lender than someone else, with the same, and potentially even less equity. Following are some speaking points I suggest you use, if you should decide to contact your Congressional representative:
1. My credit score is __________
2. I have owned my home for _______ years
3. I have NEVER been late on my mortgage payment
4. I have steady employment income and have been at my current job for _____ years.
5. So, why can't I refinance my ___% mortgage at today's lower rates, when someone else with all the same statistics can?
Be sure to start your correspondence or call with the fact that you want to qualify for a HARP loan, but have been denied because your current mortgage includes mortgage insurance.
To contact your Congressman, Senator, or Fannie Mae, click on the links below to be taken to their websites.
https://writerep.house.gov/writerep/welcome.shtml
http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
http://www.fanniemae.com/contact/crc.jhtml;jsessionid=OKGECFH3RIXC5J2FECHSFGQ?p=Contact+Us
Please have a safe and happy holiday weekend.
Warm regards,
Shelby Bateson
Town & Country Mortgage
503-819-6545 phone
Good afternoon and welcome to the second half of 2009.
The news is mixed today, and rates are again somewhat volatile ahead of the holiday weekend, and the beginning of second quarter earnings reports.
Treasury bond yields are rising again today as investors again become nervous about the bond auction coming up next week. While the auction is not record setting in size, it is still a big auction. Also trading on Wall Street is very light today, because of the short week, and because investors are awaiting the June employment numbers that will be reported tomorrow.
The ADP numbers were released this morning for June. (ADP reports only on the private sector employment data and are not deemed to be truly accurate). Employers announced the fewest job cuts for June that we have seen in over a year. Some analysts are taking this as a sign that perhaps more employers have finally reached a "stabilization" point where they feel they are now staffed at the numbers required to make it through the rest of the recession. Planned firings dropped 9% for the month of June. This brings the total number of people who have lost employment, since this recession began in late 2007, to more than six million people! The ADP report is considered a somewhat unreliable report because it excludes government employees, and we know that many states are also laying off employees.
California just announced that state workers will be required to take an additional 1/3 day off without pay, and some people will be paid with State of California IOUs!! Wow - that will pay the bills. Can they use those IOUs to make their mortgage payments? Other states around the country are also scrambling to pass their state budgets to see how they will manage their economies, since June 30 marks the end of the fiscal year for many states.
Mortgage applications dropped the most last week, since February, due to higher rates. Refinance applications, which had been sustaining the mortgage industry declined 30% and accounted for less than 50% of all mortgage transactions for the month. It is feared that if rates continue to rise, and foreclosures continue to rise, this housing crisis could extend well into the latter part of 2010. But, those buyers who can still qualify for credit are out buying up the bargains. The NRA (National Realtors Assocation) is reporting that, for the most part, most sales are "distress sales (properties priced below fair market value).
The good news this morning is:
Are you shopping for a home now? Are you thinking of utilizing FHA financing, AND buying a bank owned (foreclosed) property? Here's a strategy that some realtors across the country are utilizing to get those offers accepted more quickly. Offer the bank as much or more than they are asking, with the knowledge that the property will NOT appraise for as much as the offer. The bank is pretty certain to accept your offer, but will HAVE to renegotiate with you for the appraised value. I'm not going to go into all the intricacies of why this works, but the bank is "stuck" with the appraised value for 6 months from the date of the appraisal, so they will either have to renegotiate with you, or sell that property to someone else at the appraised value. The one caveat here is that this will only work if you can qualify for the higher loan amount (based on your offer price) AND you are really certain that the offer price is higher than where the property will appraise.
On a lighter note, please click on the link below to view a very heartwarming story. This story has absolutely nothing to do with the markets or mortgages, but it is a "warm and fuzzy, makes you feel good" video, so I'm passing it on. I've never done this before, so please let me know if you would prefer I not do this again.
http://www.playgroundsoftheworld.com/wmv/McElway_basketball.wmv
Enjoy the rest of your day today.
Best regards,
10228 SW Capitol Highway
Portland, OR 97219
Lic # ML-3604
* Best rates apply to borrowers with Loan to Value at or below 90% and credit scores of 740+. ** Best FHA rates apply to credit scores of 660 and up. There are upward rate adjustments for lower credit scores on all loan programs. All rates are subject to change without notice. These rates are NOT APRs - do not include closing costs.
Good morning, and happy end of the first half of 2009. Tomorrow we officially begin the "second half" of 2009, which many analysts and economists have predicted will mark the beginning of the end of the worst recession to hit this country, and the world in 5 decades. Let's hope all these brilliant people are correct in their predictions.
The Case Shiller index released home valuation numbers for April (note this is 2 months behind). The news was a bit encouraging as we are seeing a decrease in the drop in home values across the country. In fact, 8 cities reported values increasing slightly. Alas, Portland was not one of those cities, and we did see yet another 0.6% drop in values in our area. That is an improvement. So, if your house was worth $300,000 prior to April, as of May 1, according to this index, it was worth only $298,200. I have to comment here that $1800 drop on a $300,000 house is really not much - true it's a drop, but it shouldn't make or break a sale. In other cities on the West Coast, San Diego and San Francisco both reported a slight increase in values. We are now well into the traditionally busiest season for home sales. While home values appear to be steadying, we do know that with the high unemployment rate, more foreclosures are upcoming. But, we also know that banks are becoming more reluctant to sell homes at below value prices, and are actually holding off on releasing their REO inventory, to help sustain home values, and of course, to save on more losses to their bottom lines.
Hang onto your pocketbooks folks. In the ongoing saga between Swiss Bank UBS and the IRS, it appears that the IRS has won the battle. If you, or anyone you know has a "hidden" bank account at UBS (for the purpose of avoiding IRS taxes), you will NOT be able to access those funds unless you close the account or move the funds to an onshore account, beginning tomorrow, July 1, 2009! In response to this announcement, many lenders have already announced this morning that prior to closing a mortgage transaction, you will be required to sign a form authorizing the lender to do an OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) search prior to drawing docs or funding your loan. Some of the credit bureaus we utilize have the capacity to make this search prior to issuing the credit report. Of course, there is a nominal extra charge for this search, but the few dollars up front (my best guess is not more than $5) could save hundreds of dollars in closing delays. So, of course, we will be utilizing this service beginning immediately.
Daniel Baldwin, brother of actor Steven Baldwin, has announced that he will be moving to Portland with plans of opening a film production company here in our city. The plan is to make films in and about Oregon. His initial plans include the start of at least 3 productions within the first year. Are we ready for a Portland based reality show? Please let me know if you will be appearing in that production so I can plug your move into "stardom." Other plans include a horror flick, and a documentary on the struggling economy in Oregon. In fact, a large part of the reason for Baldwin's move to Portland is to help our economy. Did you realize that Oregon's economy is just below the poverty level? Then why are our housing prices averaging approximately $125,000 higher than the median price of homes across the nation?
The stock market is down across the board this morning, as we close out this quarter. This is not unusual because the close of the quarter means we are moving into business earnings reports beginning next week (always a nervous time for investors). AND, we are again testing the 52 day and 200 day highs in the stock market indices. The S & P is right at 915, the DOW hit 8500, both significant points of resistance since we hit the low in March. In the meantime, the yield on the 10 year bond seems to be moving up again. It dropped slightly below 3.5% yesterday, but has reversed course today, and currently sits at 3.51%. Hang on - we're hearing the Feds are again infusing cash into the mortgage bond markets, so we just might see mortgage rates moving down again.
Best rates this morning:
30 year fixed - still above 5% - but trying to hit that mark again
5/1 ARM - this loan rate really depends on the lender. We are seeing the best rate between 4.5% - 5% for those lenders offering this product. This product is very sensitive to ALL the possible adjustments that can affect the rate you will pay.
FHA - 5.5% and up - again depending on the lender.
Speaking of lenders, please be sure to do some shopping around for rates and fees BEFORE you or anyone you know, applies at one of the bigger banks. We are hearing that more and more of the big banks are requiring non-refundable application fees, and once you pay that $500-$750 fee, you will feel stuck with that bank. But, rates are so variable between lenders these days, that getting yourself stuck may not be the best option for you. There are still over 90 lenders out there doing loans in our area, so there is significant competition for your business.
Do you remember that dreadful HVCC I have mentioned recently? The NAB (National Association of Builders) has joined our cry for repeal of this law. Apparently they are now experiencing appraisals coming in lower than the cost to build their new houses! We are hearing whispers that some regulatory bodies are reviewing this law and that a moratorium may go into effect shortly. One can only hope that some level of common sense will prevail in Congress.
And last but least, this is a short work week due to the 4th of July holiday. All banks and lenders will be closed on Friday. Sadly, Fort Vancouver has announced that there will be no 4th of July fireworks this year. The cost to produce our fabulous show has grown to almost $500,000, and the budget does not allow for that expenditure this year. But plans are already underway for the show to resume next year. Let's hope the economy cooperates.
Make it a great day everyone. We are in for some hot weather beginning tomorrow. 90 degrees and up is forecast for the rest of the week, and probably into the weekend, so be careful and wear your sunscreen.
* Best rates apply to borrowers with Loan to Value at or below 90% and credit scores of 740+. ** Best FHA rates apply to credit scores of 620 and up. There are upward rate adjustments for lower credit scores on all loan programs. All rates are subject to change without notice. These rates are NOT APRs - do not include closing costs.
After meeting for the last two days, Ben Bernanke held a press conference with the media summarizing the key points covered during the meeting. Here's a recap of today's Fed speak:
1. The Feds will leave overnight lending rates unchanged at between 0%-.25%, probably for at least the rest of 2009. For those of you with any debt tied to the prime rate (currently at 3.25%), this means no change in that rate or in those payments. NOTE: Mortgages are almost never tied to the prime rate. They are more likely to be tied to the LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) index, and most specifically the 6 month LIBOR rate for most mortgages. The 6 month LIBOR is currently at 1.16%. ARM loans tied to the LIBOR will feel the effects of a rising LIBOR index only at the time of each payment adjustment.
However, if you have a variable rate HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit), this type of loan is almost always tied to the prime rate. The good news for you is that your low monthly rate and payments will remain unchanged for now.
2. Bernanke also mentioned that the Feds are watching to see how quickly the economy will recover on its own. He said:
Bernanke disappointed Wall Street, and all of us in the housing industry by failing to say that the Feds will resume purchases of Mortgage backed securities. This failure caused the yield on the 10 year bond to rise, and mortgage rates to rise with the yield. Currently the 30 year mortgage is averaging a rate of 5.38% nationally. That's substantially higher than just a month ago, when we saw rates below 5%, but slightly below the high we saw last week at closer to 5.6%.
A government report released today showed an unexpected increase in durable goods orders (refrigerators, televisions, computers, etc.) , but at the same time, an increase in unemployment nationally.
Ben Bernanke is walking a tightrope of a sort. Trying to move our economy into recovery mode after the worst recession in 5 decades is almost unprecedented with the powers the Feds have been assigned. And, his appointment to Chairman of the FOMC will expire shortly. There is considerable debate on whether or not he will be re-appointed. President Obama pretty much deflected the question at a recent news conference. While Bernanke was appointed by his predecessor, this is a pretty tough spot to insert a new key player.
I said my mantra last night for lower rates, but apparently the powers that be weren't listening. Can we hope for a delayed reaction? Again, I think that a key factor in whether or not the Feds will resume purchases of Mortgage backed securities will rest on the effect of the higher interest rates on the housing market recovery. Those numbers won't be released until mid-late July.
Speaking of the housing market recovery - other news released today was that sales of new homes decreased in May, but prices for those homes increased. Are we surprised then that those sales decreased?
Here's more news:
The average price of homes that are selling is at $173,000 - $200,000 nationwide.
The current inventory of homes that qualify for conforming loans (at or below $417,000) is at 9+ months nationwide.
The current inventory of homes priced at $1,000,000+ is at 8+ YEARS!!
Builders take note - the buyers out there are snapping up the lower end of the price range. If you are building, you have to keep this in mind! Home buyers are following the trends seen in the retail stores. Walmart and Kohls are thriving during this economic downturn, while Nordstom, Saks, Tiffanys, etc., are all feeling the pinch. Those who have money are holding onto it.
OK - that's it for today.
Tomorrow I will focus onwhat you can do to qualify for the best mortgage rates out there, and why some of you, even with good credit, are still looking at higher rates.
Enjoy the rest of your afternoons and evenings.
503-819-6545
Did we say to expect a volatile week this week? That was an understatement.
To recap - The yield on the 10 year T bond was at 4% as we started the week.
Yesterday was saw the yield drop below 3.6% for a very brief time, before the bond selling exploded and yields went crazy. We closed yesterday with the yield at 3.73% - but opened this morning at 3.75% and we've been rising ever since. The yield, at this moment is at 3.84%!
In the absence of government intervention in mortgage bonds, they have been following the 10 year bond, and so mortgage rates have been on a roller coaster ride this week. I hate to even try to quote rates right now because updated rate sheets have been rolling out at least hourly the last 2 days.
So - what's causing all this craziness?
Hang onto your hats again. It looks like next week will be another rocky ride.
OH - and mortgage rates are somewhere between 5% - 5.5% for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage.
There was some more good news/bad news on the economic front this morning.
President Obama rolled out his plan for regulation reform in the financial industries. It is 85 pages of reform that is meeting with a lot of controversy, and resistance, both in Congress and in the business sector.
Here's the Did you know - The Senate is currently discussing whether or not to INCREASE the tax credit for a home purchase from $8,000 to $15,000. The amount will almost double, and will be available to every home buyer! not just first time home buyers. WOW - They are really trying to get this housing market moving again. This credit will be available for owner occupied homes only.
Stay tuned - you'll know more as soon as I do.
1-866-626-2828 fax
The stock market was down again today, and rates dropped significantly at the open. However, the open didn't hold. Rates moved up slightly as the day progressed, but still closed lower than yesterday. We are moving closer to 5% on the 30 year fixed. The 10 year bond closed at 3.69% today - considerably lower than yesterday.
HVCC = The Home Valuation Code of Conduct
The focus of my email today centers around HVCC. I think it's important that you know about HVCC and how it can and WILL affect you and anyone you know buying, selling or refinancing a house. HVCC went into effect on May 1st this year, and is raising havoc with the already fragile housing industry. If you'd like to learn about how HVCC can potentially cost you thousands extra in closing costs to purchase a home, or how it can literally kill a sale of your home, please click on the link below to view the video.
If you are as outraged as those of us in the real estate, mortgage, and appraisal industries are, please sign the petition and help us kill this travesty called reform. We are doing all we can to fight this bill, but we need your help too.
https://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/public/showArchiveVideo/1/4909
Thanks in advance for your help.
Best regards
http://www.shelbytncmortgage.com
Enjoy the rest of your day today. We might have rain in the forecast beginning tomorrow.
Good morning. Can you believe 2009 is almost half over, and summer is just around the corner?
As quickly as mortgage rates rose to their highest levels in a year, we are seeing Treasury and Mortgage bond rates drop late last week and this morning. There is resumed confidence in the US dollar after comments from Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin that Russia has no immediate plans to switch from US currencies for their reserves. (If you'll recall, it was speculation that Russia would start selling off their US Treasuries that led to the huge rise in bond yields last week.) In addition, Japan has indicated that "investors have nowhere else to put their money that is more secure, nor paying higher yields than US Treauries."
Bond yields have dropped from just over 4% last week to around 3.7 right now. Mortgage rates are following the drop. However, before we get overly excited, a survey of Bloomberg analysts forecast that the bond yield might not drop lower than 3.65%.
However, there are other economic concerns now, which has the stock market diving as investors take profits and sit back and wait for other news that validates the recent rally. The DOW is currently down over 200 points, NASDAQ down more than 50 points, and the S & P has broken through a key resistance point of 925, now at 920. To make matters more precarious, this is a "triple witching week" which is always volatile. (Triple witching occurs the 3rd Friday of the last month of each quarter. It is the expiration of stock index futures, stock option futures, and stock options.) Traders and investors are required to close out these option trades by this Friday, or allow them to expire worthless, or at a potential loss. This is what causes the extreme volatility in weeks like this one.
On the good news front, oil prices are down from last week's highs, and most commodities are down substantially as well.
For those of us looking for more reform and regulation of our financial systems, stay tuned as President Obama will be announcing on Wednesday more reforms which will give the Federal Reserve broader powers to prevent the kind of "economic meltdown" we have just experienced over the last 2 years. It is reported that a comprehensive plan will be announced which will provide for a stronger framework for consumer and investor protection.
The G-8 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) is currently meeting,..... and is working on worldwide regulations, as well as an "exit strategy" to pouring money into worldwide economies. Treasury Secretary Tim Geitner is at the meeting representing the United States. In addition, there is a separate meeting being held by India, Russia, China and Brazil, currently the 4 strongest economies in the world. Now that it appears that economies world wide are reaching some level of stabilization, a plan (exit strategy) is required to return us all to some level of normalcy.
President Obama is also meeting with the AMA today, discussing his plans for health care reform The Congress is under a mandate to deliver a health care reform package to the President by October 2009. One option being discussed is a U.S. government owned insurance company to provide health care insurance. This would be in competition to other privately owned health care insurance providers, and forgive me speculation, but it appears that this would definitely help reduce the high costs of health care insurance in this country. Obama is urging the AMA to back his plan, while the plan is still meeting a lot of resistance from the Republican party.
This is likely to be a very volatile week on wall street, and is also potentially a volatile week in terms of mortgage bonds. Please stay tuned. I'll keep you updated as news breaks. For now, we're on rate watch.
*Best rates, as I write this: (remember these rates apply to those with the best scores, highest equity positions for purchase and rate and term refinances.)
30 year fixed 5.375% APR 5.41%
5/1 ARMs 4.5% APR 4.622%
FHA 5.5% APR 5.71%
Stay tuned as "our economy turns" this week. I'll do my best to keep you posted.
After a month of rising mortgage rates and rising yields on the 10 year T bond, we are finally seeing the pull back that we'd been hoping would occur. There are multiple reasons for the drop, but the most significant is a believed to be that a Wall STreet index fund showed confidence in the US dollar by making large purchases of shorter term bonds, and other funds followed. Also, a Japanese finance minister announced that they will continue to buy US debt because they have "unshakable" confidence in the US dollar. (The rise in rates had begun as countries, such as Russia, India and Brazil had previously annouced that they would sell US debt in favor of more stable multinational currencies.) It is now anticipated that Treasury yields should continue to drop, according to a spokesperson at Citigroup.
Yesterday, the yield on the 10 year bond hit 4% before it turned back down. Is that a new point of resistance? Let's hope it is, because mortgage rates hit almost 6% on the 30 year fixed before we saw the reversal begin. This morning we are seeing the yield back around 3.8% - a huge drop. It is currently at 3.77%. The best rates on 30 year fixed have also pulled back to as low as 5.375%* for the very strongest of borrowers.
The Feds still are reluctant to comment on whether or not they will resume purchasing bonds to keep yields low. They are still watching to see how the market handles the fluctuations, and how the fluctuations and higher borrowing rates are affecting consumers. We expect to hear more about this after the next FOMC meeting in 2 weeks.
Yesterday we saw the price of oil top $72/barrel - up more than $5 in just a week. We've watched gas prices rise just as quickly. There is now discussion among traders that oil prices could hit $80/barrel by year end. Let's hope not. We're at almost $3 per gallon now. Oil is currently trading at just under $72/barrel.
The eyes of the world, and Wall Street, are on Iran today. Iran is holding presidential elections and are reporting what could be record breaking turn out at the polls. This election could somewhat alter the course of politics in that region. The primary rivals in this election are the current conservative, hard-line, President Ahmadinejad, and reformist Mousavi, who favors more freedom for the people and closer ties with the United States. Election result are expected to be released on Sunday.
The Michigan consumer confidence index released this morning, showed an increase in confidence for the sixth straight month. This index shows us that consumers are beginning to spend again, and is a good signal that perhaps the worst truly is behind us.
The very popular 5/1 ARM loan is doing its coming and going thing. Currently, I see just a few lenders offering this product, with rates, for the most part, significantly lower than the 30 year fixed rate loan. The best rates on this loan, this morning, are at 4.5%*. Again, I feel that I must caution that this loan is not necessarily the best way to finance your property. We should discuss the pros and cons of this type of loan, before you make this decision. It is always important to remember that while 4.5% is a very attractive rate, it is almost certain to rise in 5 years, when this loan becomes adjustable. The Adjustable rate mortgage is a special offer by some lenders when they find investors with an interest in offering this type of financing. When these funds run out, this loan can become unavailable and/or rates for the product being offer can change significantly.
Have a fabulous weekend.
Big news today
Oil topped $70/barrel today, the first time since September 2008. $70 has been a point of resistance, so all eyes are watching to see if that point of resistance will hold, or if oil prices are about to move higher. It is reported that hedge funds are investing heavily in oil futures, as the hedge fund managers, in general, expect the upward movement in prices to become a trend.
10 of the 19 largest banks have gotten the green light to pay back TARP money. The Treasury should start receiving those repayments, with interest beginning this week. The total repayments totals $68 billion! That's a start on paying us back.
Mortgage rates went on another raving upswing yesterday as bond holders continued to dump inventory in anticipation of better prices and rates with the auctions this week. Rates are slightly improved today, but not even back to where they opened yesterday morning. 3 year bonds are being auctioned today, 10 year bonds tomorrow. Let's hope they are well received, so mortgage prices will drop more. We have seen mortgage rates rise a full 100 basis points (1%) in the last 3.5 weeks!
Check out the chart below for a real time look at what's going on in the Real Estate Market in our part of the world. If you are interested in a specific city in Oregon, please let me know and I'll be happy to post data for that area. After review, it appears that Portland is pretty average for the entire Portland metro area. Some areas have higher median prices, and of course, some lower, but in general, all areas are looking at 100+ days of inventory (do the math, that's only 3-4 months-which is much improved from the 9+ months we have been seeing and hearing about.)
The trend is definitely turning positive, for now, in our part of the world
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